The sudden death of President General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq in a plane crash in Bahawalpur on August 17, 1988, proved to be a major turning point in Pakistan's political history. The event set the country back on the path toward democracy after a prolonged period of military rule. However, the entire decade from 1988 to 1999 was marked by severe political instability, shifting political alliances, institutional conflicts, and economic difficulties. This period is often described as a “Decade of Instability” in Pakistan's political history.
Below is a detailed and comprehensive political analysis of the period from Zia-ul-Haq's death to the year 2000.
1. Zia-ul-Haq's Death and the Constitutional Transfer of Power (1988)
On August 17, 1988, General Zia-ul-Haq's C-130 aircraft crashed, killing him along with U.S. Ambassador Arnold Raphel and several senior military officials.
Ghulam Ishaq Khan's Presidency: Under the Constitution of Pakistan, Senate Chairman Ghulam Ishaq Khan assumed the position of acting president. The senior military leadership, under General Mirza Aslam Beg, chose not to impose martial law and instead retained the constitutional framework of 1973. General elections were announced for November 1988 with the participation of political parties.
Political Alignments: Before the elections, two major political blocs emerged:
Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP): Led by Benazir Bhutto, it emerged as a popular mass-based political party.
Islami Jamhoori Ittehad (IJI): An alliance consisting of the Muslim League, Jamaat-e-Islami, and other religious and right-wing parties. It was formed with the support of elements within the military establishment, particularly ISI chief General Hamid Gul, with the objective of preventing Benazir Bhutto from coming to power. The most prominent figure of this alliance was the young Chief Minister of Punjab, Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif.
2. Benazir Bhutto's First Government (1988–1990)
In the November 1988 general elections, the Pakistan Peoples Party won the largest number of seats in the National Assembly, and Benazir Bhutto became the first woman prime minister in the Muslim world. However, her government faced internal and external pressures from the beginning.
Major Challenges:
Federal Government vs. Punjab: Nawaz Sharif became Chief Minister of Punjab and strongly resisted the federal government. This was a significant period in which the government of Pakistan's largest province and the federal government were openly in conflict.
Ethnic Violence in Sindh: Serious violence occurred between the Mohajir Qaumi Movement (MQM) and Sindhi nationalist groups in Karachi and Hyderabad. This eventually contributed to the breakdown of the political alliance between the PPP and MQM.
The Power Troika: Major state decisions were influenced by a “troika” consisting of President Ghulam Ishaq Khan, Army Chief General Aslam Beg, and Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. The civilian prime minister's position within this arrangement remained constrained.
Dismissal of the Government (1990): In August 1990, President Ghulam Ishaq Khan used Article 58(2)(b) of the Constitution to dismiss Benazir Bhutto's government, citing corruption, maladministration, and deterioration of law and order. Her government had lasted only about 20 months.
3. Nawaz Sharif's First Government (1990–1993)
The October 1990 elections resulted in a victory for the Islami Jamhoori Ittehad (IJI), and Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif became prime minister for the first time.
Economic Reforms and Infrastructure: Nawaz Sharif emphasized privatization, deregulation, and infrastructure development, including the construction of the country's first major motorway, the M2.
Political and Constitutional Crisis:
Nawaz Sharif soon sought greater independence from the influence of the military establishment and the presidency.
Serious disagreements developed between President Ghulam Ishaq Khan and Nawaz Sharif over the appointment of the army chief and the scope of constitutional powers.
On April 17, 1993, Nawaz Sharif delivered a historic address to the nation in which he declared: “I will neither resign, nor take dictation, nor dissolve the Assembly.”
Dismissal of the Government and Supreme Court Decision: In April 1993, President Ghulam Ishaq Khan dismissed Nawaz Sharif's government under Article 58(2)(b). However, the Supreme Court of Pakistan issued a historic ruling restoring the government and the National Assembly.
The Kakar Formula (1993): Despite the restoration, tensions between the president and prime minister became so severe that the government became increasingly dysfunctional. Eventually, in July 1993, Army Chief General Abdul Waheed Kakar intervened. Under what became known as the “Kakar Formula,” both President Ghulam Ishaq Khan and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif resigned.
4. Benazir Bhutto's Second Government (1993–1996)
General elections were held again in October 1993. The PPP formed a government with its allies, and Benazir Bhutto became prime minister for a second time.
Control of the Presidency: Learning from her previous experience, Benazir Bhutto supported the election of her close political associate Farooq Ahmad Khan Leghari as president, in an effort to reduce the possibility of another dismissal under Article 58(2)(b).
Security Operations: Military and paramilitary operations were conducted against the MQM in Karachi in an effort to restore law and order. Although these operations temporarily reduced violence in some areas, they also intensified political tensions.
Political and Family Crisis:
Benazir's husband, Asif Ali Zardari, faced allegations of financial corruption and was popularly referred to as “Mr. 10 Percent.”
In September 1996, Benazir Bhutto's brother Mir Murtaza Bhutto was killed in Karachi during a police encounter. The incident severely affected the Bhutto family's political position and intensified the crisis surrounding the government.
Second Dismissal: Relations between Benazir Bhutto and President Farooq Leghari deteriorated. In November 1996, Leghari, the president who had been politically aligned with her, dismissed her government under Article 58(2)(b), citing corruption, extrajudicial killings, and administrative failure.
5. Nawaz Sharif's Second Government and the “Heavy Mandate” (1997–1999)
In the February 1997 elections, the Pakistan Muslim League (N) won a major victory. For the first time in two decades, a political party obtained a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly. Nawaz Sharif became prime minister for a second time.
Constitutional Amendments and Concentration of Power: Nawaz Sharif used his “heavy mandate” to introduce important constitutional changes:
13th Constitutional Amendment: Presidential powers under Article 58(2)(b) were abolished, preventing the president from dissolving the National Assembly at will.
14th Constitutional Amendment: Restrictions were imposed on floor-crossing and party defections in order to prevent legislators from changing sides and bringing down governments.
Conflict with State Institutions: Serious conflicts emerged between the government and several state institutions:
Supreme Court: A confrontation developed with Chief Justice Sajjad Ali Shah. During the crisis, PML-N supporters stormed the Supreme Court building, and the chief justice eventually left office.
Presidency: President Farooq Leghari resigned, and Nawaz Sharif supported the election of Rafiq Tarar as president.
Military: When Army Chief General Jehangir Karamat proposed establishing a National Security Council, Nawaz Sharif disagreed with the proposal, and Karamat resigned. In October 1998, Nawaz Sharif appointed General Pervez Musharraf as the new army chief.
6. Pakistan as a Nuclear Power and the Kargil War (1998–1999)
Nawaz Sharif's second term was also highly significant from an international and defense perspective.
Nuclear Tests (May 28, 1998): In response to India's nuclear tests, Pakistan conducted successful nuclear tests at Chagai despite international pressure and economic sanctions. Pakistan became the world's seventh nuclear-armed state and the first nuclear-armed state in the Muslim world.
Lahore Declaration (February 1999): Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee made a historic bus journey to Lahore. The two countries signed the Lahore Declaration in an effort to normalize bilateral relations.
Kargil Conflict (1999): While peace negotiations were taking place in Lahore, Pakistani forces advanced into the Kargil sector of Kashmir under the military leadership of General Pervez Musharraf. The conflict severely damaged Pakistan-India relations and created significant international pressure on Pakistan. Following intervention by U.S. President Bill Clinton, Nawaz Sharif announced the withdrawal of Pakistani forces. The Kargil episode contributed to a serious breakdown in relations between Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Army Chief General Pervez Musharraf.
7. The October 12, 1999 Military Takeover and the Political Situation in 2000
Following the Kargil conflict, tensions between the prime minister and army chief reached a critical point.
The October 12, 1999 Crisis: While General Pervez Musharraf was returning from an official visit to Sri Lanka, Nawaz Sharif announced his removal as army chief and appointed Lieutenant General Ziauddin Butt in his place. The government also attempted to prevent Musharraf's commercial aircraft from landing in Karachi.
Military Response: Army commanders responded by taking control of key government and media installations, including the Prime Minister's House and television facilities. General Musharraf's aircraft landed safely, and he subsequently took control of the government.
Musharraf as Chief Executive: Musharraf suspended parts of the constitutional system, assumed the title of “Chief Executive,” and took control of the country's political direction.
The Political Situation in 2000:
Nawaz Sharif was prosecuted in connection with the alleged hijacking of the aircraft and was convicted.
Exile to Saudi Arabia (December 2000): Under an arrangement involving the Saudi government, Nawaz Sharif and members of his family were sent into exile in Saudi Arabia.
Benazir Bhutto was already living abroad in connection with legal cases against her.
By 2000, both of Pakistan's major civilian political leaders, Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, were outside the country, while military rule had once again become dominant.
8. Overall Political and Political-Economic Analysis
| Aspect | Analysis and Impact |
|---|---|
| Political Instability | During this period, Pakistan experienced repeated changes of government and several general elections, while no civilian government completed a full five-year constitutional term. |
| Use of Article 58(2)(b) | The constitutional power available to presidents to dissolve the National Assembly created continuing uncertainty for civilian prime ministers and contributed to political instability. |
| Role of the Opposition | The PPP and PML-N engaged in intense political competition, and their conflicts sometimes involved seeking support from elements of the military establishment. |
| Economic Difficulties | Frequent changes in government contributed to a lack of continuity in economic policy. Following the nuclear tests, international sanctions added further pressure to Pakistan's economy. |
| Role of the Military Establishment | Political conflicts among civilian leaders and continuing institutional tensions allowed the military establishment to retain a powerful role in national politics, culminating in the military takeover of 1999. |
Conclusion
The period from 1988 to 2000, following General Zia-ul-Haq's death, presented an important opportunity for Pakistan to strengthen its democratic institutions. However, intense competition between political leaders, institutional conflicts, changing political alliances, and continued military involvement in politics contributed to repeated governmental crises.
By the beginning of 2000, Pakistan had once again moved away from civilian democratic rule and was under military-led governance. The political developments of this period continued to influence Pakistan's institutions, political parties, civil-military relations, and democratic development for many years afterward.
.png)
No comments:
Post a Comment